Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Agreement: A Cease-Fire Disguised as Surrender

· August 22, 2025

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PEACE? – On August 8, 2025, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed what the White House proudly called a “historic” peace agreement. Cameras clicked, speeches flowed, and President Donald Trump stood between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and President Ilham Aliyev as they shook hands for the world to see. In Washington, it was a political trophy. Abroad, it was hailed as proof that even the deepest conflicts could be resolved.For Armenians, this was not peace. It was capitulation under duress. This deal was not born from reconciliation, but from military exhaustion, diplomatic isolation, and the bitter truth that when Nagorno-Karabakh was under siege, the world stood by and watched. No piece of paper can undo the mass displacement of our people, the destruction of centuries-old Armenian heritage, or the lives of young soldiers sacrificed. This agreement offers no justice—only a temporary pause in hostilities dressed up as statesmanship.

At its core is the so-called “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity”—a transit corridor slicing through Armenian land to link Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave. This corridor will be under U.S. control for an astonishing 99 years. In Baku, it is celebrated as a strategic triumph, a prize secured without firing a shot. In Yerevan, it is felt as a deep wound to sovereignty—a foreign-administered artery through the heart of our nation that will bleed control for generations.

The agreement does nothing to address the central issue: the political status and security of Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenian population. By ignoring this, the deal all but cements Azerbaijan’s wartime gains, leaving Armenians in Artsakh with no meaningful protection and no future guarantees. This is not a blueprint for peace—it’s a document for the management of defeat.

We have seen this pattern before. The Caucasus is littered with “peace deals” that collapse because they paper over injustice. History teaches us that when the grievances of the oppressed are ignored, conflict simply mutates, waiting for the next spark.

The international reactions only underscore the danger. Russia, once the region’s main power broker, issued a guarded welcome but warned against “foreign meddling”—a clear rebuke of Washington’s new dominance. Iran bluntly denounced the corridor as a security threat and vowed to resist it. These aren’t idle statements; both Moscow and Tehran have the leverage to undermine this arrangement at any moment. This agreement risks becoming less a foundation for stability than a fresh battlefield for great power rivalry.

In Washington, the administration is spinning this as a triumph of American diplomacy. But Armenians must ask: triumph for whom? A real peace requires mutual respect, secure borders, and a fair settlement for all peoples of the region. This deal delivers none of that. Instead, it locks Armenia into a position of weakness and dependency, with its sovereignty compromised and its security at the mercy of outside powers.

The “Trump Route” may be branded as a highway to prosperity, but without ironclad protections for Armenian interests, it is a highway of exploitation. Infrastructure can connect nations—or subjugate them. If control of this corridor becomes a tool for leverage against Armenia, then it will not be a bridge to peace but a permanent reminder of national humiliation.

Rejecting the agreement outright may not be possible; Armenia cannot afford another war. But accepting it without demanding substantial changes would be a grave mistake. The Armenian government must insist on binding, enforceable international guarantees for the safety, cultural rights, and self-determination of Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenians. It must retain full sovereign control over any transit corridor. And it must work to ensure that any peace is rooted in regional consensus, not foreign imposition.

A handshake in Washington is not the end of conflict. Without justice, it is the first step toward a slower, quieter erosion of independence. True peace is not the absence of war—it is the presence of fairness, dignity, and security. Without those, August 8, 2025, will not be remembered as the day peace came to the Caucasus, but as the day Armenia was forced to bow and call it peace.

(Mihran Kalaydjian has over twenty years of public affairs, government relations, legislative affairs, public policy, community relations and strategic communications experience. He is a leading member of the community and a devoted civic engagement activist for education spearheading numerous academic initiatives in local political forums. Mihran is also the President of Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure of TCCI)