Vance to visit Armenia and Azerbaijan as US advocates TRIPP corridor

US Vice President JD Vance will travel to Armenia next Monday before visiting Azerbaijan later this month, signalling Washington’s renewed focus on the South Caucasus as it pushes to implement a peace framework agreed last year.

The visit highlights US efforts to promote trade, investment and infrastructure in the region through the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity corridor (TRIPP).

However, analysts believe that success will require strong governance and close transatlantic coordination.

“The visit of JD Vance to Armenia and Azerbaijan signals US momentum towards implementing the 2025 peace framework,” said Tihomira Kostova, senior analyst at the Centre for the Study of Democracy’s Geoeconomics Programme.

She said the TRIPP corridor could drive regional cooperation and foreign investment, but only under strict conditions.

“TRIPP’s success will depend on stability, competitiveness and strong transparency,” Kostova said, noting that greater connectivity could expose existing vulnerabilities.

“This is particularly critical given the South Caucasus’ record of sanctions evasion and illicit financial flows, with Armenia recently emerging as a re-export hub for sanctioned dual-use goods bound for Russia,” she said.

Kostova said that expanded transport and digital links might risk amplifying these challenges unless carefully monitored.

“Greater connectivity could heighten these risks unless tightly controlled, making robust US-EU coordination with Armenia and Azerbaijan essential for effective sanctions enforcement,” she added.

Renewed Washington engagement

The visit follows the launch of a US-facilitated peace framework in August 2025 between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev, marking a rare moment of diplomatic convergence after years of regional instability.

For Washington, the South Caucasus is gaining strategic relevance beyond conflict management.

Nargiz Mammadova, an expert in international relations at the STEM Analytical Centre in Baku, said recent developments reflect a broader reassessment of the region’s economic and geopolitical value.

“The consequences of the meeting in Washington dramatically transform the South Caucasus,” Mammadova said.

“The Trump administration is interested in the region not only in terms of peace and security, but also in economic prosperity. This explains expanding relations of the US with both Armenia and Azerbaijan.”

She said Vance’s visit could lay the groundwork for more durable institutional engagement. “Pragmatically, we can be more certain that a strategic partnership agreement is on the agenda and could be signed shortly.”

TRIPP corridor and digital ambitions

At the centre of US engagement is TRIPP, a proposed transit corridor through Armenia linking Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave with the mainland.

The initiative is designed to facilitate trade, energy transit, logistics and digital connectivity, potentially opening a new east-west route between Central Asia and Europe.

Mammadova stressed that TRIPP should not be viewed as a conventional infrastructure project. “It is more than a corridor for transporting commodities,” she said. “Digitisation and the use of advanced technologies throughout the route will be essential to its long-term impact.”

She cited Azerbaijan’s cooperation with US major technology firms involved in IT infrastructure and digital solutions as early signs of a broader digital strategy. If linked with Central Asia via the Zangezur and Middle Corridors, Mammadova said the project could underpin a new cross-regional digital ecosystem.

New transport routes could diversify European supply chains and improve access to emerging markets. Azerbaijan already supplies Europe with gas through the Southern Gas Corridor.

Analysts say governance and transparency will be critical as infrastructure expands. Whether TRIPP succeeds depends on effective regulation and coordination between the US, EU and regional partners.