Revisiting the U.S. Response to the 2020 Artsakh War

, evnreport.comThe 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) upended the 26-year-long status quo established by the 1994 ceasefire that ended the First Nagorno-Karabakh War. It ultimately led to the Azerbaijani takeover of the self-governing territory in September 2023 and the consequent forced exodus of its entire Armenian population. The six-week war also decimated Armenia’s military capabilities, exacerbating the disparity between the two countries and paving the way for further concessions under continued threats from Baku.

The Trump administration’s response to the war in 2020 was a bizarre mix of long-established American policy of a neutral mediator and Trump’s usual populist rhetoric, partly aimed at wooing Armenian-American voters as the war coincided with the presidential election campaign. The vote took place on November 3, a week before a Russian-mediated ceasefire was reached.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev wholeheartedly welcomed the Trump administration’s disengaged approach. He told Fox News during the war: “I think what President Trump does with respect to the conflict resolution is fully in line with international relations. We fully support his position, his personal comments on that.” He called the U.S. position “balanced” and said that both he and the Azerbaijani people “highly” support the “very straight forward position of President Trump.”

More recently, in July 2024, Aliyev stated at a “media forum” in Shushi that Azerbaijan’s ties with the U.S. “have always been much more productive, fruitful, and result-oriented” under Republican administrations. “During President Trump’s presidency, we enjoyed very fruitful cooperation based on mutual respect and appreciation of each other’s support on different tracks. Our relations with the United States were pretty stable,” he added.

Initial Statements

On September 25, 2020, two days before fighting began, U.S. embassies in Yerevan and Baku issued security alerts warning U.S. citizens not to travel near the border.

On September 27, the day Azerbaijan launched its attack, the State Department issued a statement saying the U.S. is “alarmed” by the “large scale military action” and condemned the escalation “in the strongest terms”. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun called Foreign Ministers Jeyhun Bayramov and Zohrab Mnatsakanyan to urge for an immediate ceasefire. That day, Trump told reporters: “It just happened. And I know about it. I learned about it today and yesterday. And we’re looking at it very strongly. We have a lot of good relationships in that area. We’ll see if we can stop it.”

A joint statement by presidents Trump, Putin, and Macron on October 1 condemned the escalation “in the strongest terms” and called for an “immediate cessation of hostilities” and resumption of “substantive negotiations, in good faith and without preconditions” under the Minsk Group. A similar statement was issued by the foreign ministers four days later.

When Pashinyan spoke with Trump’s National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien on October 1, the latter promised to set up a phone call with Trump, which never took place as Trump tested positive for the coronavirus the next day. The New York Times argued that it “only accentuated his administration’s disengagement” from the conflict.

State Secretary Mike Pompeo rarely mentioned the war until mid-October, when America increasingly stepped up its diplomatic engagement. As one commentator noted, until then, the U.S. “seems to have barely taken notice” of the fighting.

On October 13, Pompeo called on both countries to implement a ceasefire and “cease targeting civilian areas, such as Ganja and Stepanakert.” Asked during a briefing the next day what the administration is doing and whether they have talked to the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Pompeo said he does not “want to get into the conversations that are ongoing.” He said he spoke with Trump about it “briefly.” Pompeo insisted that the administration is paying a “great deal of attention to it” and has “done some work that […] increases the likelihood” of getting a ceasefire and an “outcome that is a solution based on international law.” Pompeo further noted: “We’ve watched Turkey begin to reinforce Azerbaijan. We’ve asked every international player to stay out of the region, not to continue to reinforce trouble, and we’re working to deliver that.”

Pompeo made further remarks about the war on talk radio on October 15. He noted that Turkey has “stepped in and provided resources to Azerbaijan, increasing the risk, increasing the firepower” in what he described as a “historic fight.” He criticized Turkey’s role, saying the conflict cannot be resolved with “third party countries coming in to lend their firepower to what is already a powder keg of a situation.” He expressed hope that Armenians “will be able to defend against what the Azerbaijanis are doing.”

Three weeks into the fighting, Trump said, at a campaign rally in Carson City, Nevada on October 18, that Armenians have a “beautiful flag” and a “great spirit for their country.” He added: “We are working on some things” without elaborating.

Mediation Efforts

The most significant diplomatic intervention by the U.S. occurred on October 23, when Secretary Pompeo held separate meetings with Foreign Ministers Mnatsakanyan and Bayramov in Washington. Pompeo said they discussed “critical steps” to halt the violence and again called for a ceasefire and return to substantive negotiations. A State Department statement referred to the Helsinki Final Act principles of the non-use or threat of force, territorial integrity, and the equal rights and self-determination of peoples.

On the same day, asked if he is going to play any role in the conflict, Trump told reporters: “Yes, we’re talking about it. We’re working with Armenia. We have a very good relationship with Armenia. They’re very good people. They’re so dedicated. They’re incredible people, and we’ll see what happens.” Asked whether he had spoken to either leader, Trump said: “I don’t want to say. But we will see what happens. I think really good progress is being made with respect to that. We have a lot of people living in this country originally from Armenia, and they’re great people, and we’re going to help them. Okay?”

National Security Advisor O’Brien also met with the Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers in Washington. He said he “pressed” Bayramov for an “immediate ceasefire” and Minsk Group-facilitated negotiations with Armenia, and “rejection of outside actors further destabilizing the situation.” He said the conflict has no military solution. Following his meeting with Mnatsakanyan, O’Brien said the U.S. will continue its “strongest diplomatic efforts at all levels until the conflict is resolved.” O’Brien told CBS that Armenia has accepted a ceasefire, while Azerbaijan has not yet. “We’re pushing them [Azerbaijan] to do so,” he noted.

At a campaign rally in Londonderry, New Hampshire on October 25, Trump said Armenians are “incredible people” and are “fighting like hell.” He added, “you know what we’re going to get something done. […] The problems they’ve had, with the death and the fighting, we’re going to get that straightened out. […] I call that an easy one.” He told a group of Armenian-American supporters: “Go back and tell your people, we’ll get that straightened out.”

A U.S.-mediated humanitarian ceasefire was announced on the same day after “intensive negotiations.” Trump congratulated Pashinyan and Aliyev on agreeing to adhere to a cease fire. “Many lives will be saved. Proud of my team […] for getting the deal done!” he tweeted. This was the third international effort to broker a ceasefire. The first was mediated by Russia on October 10 and the second by France on October 17.

It, like the previous two attempts, failed and resumption of fighting was reported almost immediately. A New York Times editorial argued the collapse of the ceasefire was indicative of the Trump administration’s “lost standing in the world.” Trump initially insisted it was holding, but subsequently conceded that it had collapsed: “Yeah, it’s disappointing to see that, but that’s what happens when you have countries that have been going at it for a long time. It’ll get back together.”

Pompeo spoke with Pashinyan and Aliyev separately on October 27 to “press” them to “abide by their commitments to cease hostilities and pursue a diplomatic solution.” O’Brien also spoke with Pashinyan two days later. “The people of both countries have suffered badly, with the people of Armenia, who are facing offensive military operations, now taking the brunt of the casualties,” he said. According to Pashinyan’s office, O’Brien “assured that they will continue their mediation efforts aimed at achieving a ceasefire and ruling out the involvement of third parties in the conflict.”

The U.S. also engaged in diplomacy multilaterally within the OSCE Minsk Group, mandated to coordinate the negotiations along with Russia and France. The co-chairs of the Minsk Group met separately and jointly with Foreign Ministers Mnatsakanyan and Bayramov in Geneva on October 30 to call for an immediate humanitarian ceasef