Nobel Peace Prize for Trump; Road for Azerbaijan; Nothing for Armenia — By Harut Sassounian
As expected, Pres. Donald Trump turned the White House Summit for “peace” in the Caucasus into a farcical show, constantly engaging in self-flattery, taking credit for things he had not done, blaming Pres. Biden, and frequently straying from the subject of the meeting.
Trump had only one purpose for organizing this White House event: to secure the Nobel Peace Prize for allegedly brokering peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, claiming it was something no one else could achieve in 35 years.
In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump shamelessly glorified himself: “Many leaders have tried to end the War, with no success, until now, thanks to ‘TRUMP.’” He also took credit for settling several other conflicts in which he had zero involvement. He conveniently failed to mention his arrogant campaign promise to resolve the war in Ukraine “within 24 hours of taking office.” He has now been President for seven months, yet the war persists.
The serious issue of addressing the disputed transit road from mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhichevan exclave through Armenia quickly degenerated into farce with the announcement that it would be called “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) — yet another example of Trump’s vanity.
The “Peace Treaty” Pashinyan has been touting for months was not signed as announced, but merely initialed during last week’s White House Summit, rendering it a non-binding document. Aliyev has no interest in signing the treaty, knowing that doing so would eliminate his leverage to demand further concessions from Pashinyan, who has thus far capitulated to all his demands. Aliyev will delay signing the treaty until Pashinyan fulfills yet another Azeri demand to amend Armenia’s Constitution, a process that will take 10 more months.
Armenians remain unaware of the “Peace Treaty’s” terms. It is reportedly set for release on August 11. We will then discover what kind of concessions Pashinyan has made to Azerbaijan. He is also violating the pledge he made in 2018 to a large crowd in Yerevan’s Republic Square that he would not sign any agreement without first securing their approval.
Pashinyan has deceived the Armenian public by claiming he is delivering peace to Armenia — hoping that such a promise will help him retain his seat after next year’s parliamentary elections. For Aliyev, this so-called “Peace Treaty” is merely a piece of paper he can violate at will after signing. Should Azerbaijan attack Armenia, neither Eastern nor Western powers will intervene. The Armenian public should not vainly expect the U.S. government to send troops to defend Armenia’s borders. The memorandum signed last Friday makes clear that this is strictly a commercial, not military, arrangement.
There are numerous problems with Pashinyan’s contradictory positions. Months ago, when an Armenian journalist asked if he would consider granting management of the transit road to an international organization, he categorically rejected the idea. Yet, he just handed the transit road’s management to a foreign entity.
Here is another broken promise. A few months ago, when Aliyev demanded that Armenia agree to disband OSCE’s Minsk Group of mediators, Pashinyan said he would do so upon signing the “Peace Treaty.” Yet, last Friday Pashinyan signed the White House Memorandum calling for the dissolution of the Minsk Group — even though Aliyev had not signed the treaty.
More ominously, the initialed “Peace Treaty” contains no provision for the release of Armenian hostages held in Baku, withdrawal of Azeri troops from Armenia’s territory occupied since 2021, or the right of return for 120,000 displaced Artsakh Armenians, despite the International Criminal Court’s ruling for their repatriation. This is a reward for Aliyev’s criminal behavior. Until Azerbaijan reverses course on these issues, Pashinyan should have refused to initial or sign the treaty. I hope he is not relying on promises from Trump, who refused to recognize the Armenian Genocide on April 24 — even though Congress and Pres. Biden had recognized it.
In 2020, Armenia agreed to provide Azerbaijan with a transit road through its territory in exchange for the Lachin Corridor linking Artsakh to Armenia. Since then, Azerbaijan has occupied Artsakh and the Lachin Corridor, eliminating Armenia’s obligation to uphold the ceasefire agreement. This transit link is the “Turan Road,” the Century-old dream of the Turkic world, connecting Turkey and Azerbaijan to the Turkic republics of Central Asia. Regrettably, these issues appear to matter little to Pashinyan, who is more focused on retaining his seat than protecting Armenia’s interests.
One of the major gains for Azerbaijan during last Friday’s White House ceremony was the suspension of Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act, passed by Congress in 1992, which prohibited direct U.S. government assistance to Azerbaijan. Now Azerbaijan is able to purchase billions of dollars’ worth of advanced U.S. weapons that could be used against Armenia. How does that promote peace?
No details were provided to the public about U.S. management of the transit road. Why was it granted for 99 years with an option to extend another 99 years — effectively handing it to the U.S. government indefinitely, at the expense of Armenia’s sovereignty? It is also unclear what benefit Armenia stands to gain from the billions of dollars’ worth of goods transiting its territory.
For years, Pashinyan objected to Aliyev’s demand for a “corridor” instead of a road through Armenia. A corridor implies that the transit road would be considered Azeri territory. Yet, when Pres. Trump spoke at the White House Summit, he referred to the road as a “corridor.” Furthermore, the agreement signed by the three leaders includes the problematic term “unimpeded” transit. What exactly does “unimpeded entail? Does it mean Armenia has no right to inspect the passports and luggage of those crossing into its territory from Azerbaijan?
Here is the bottom line of the White House Summit: Trump may get his Nobel Peace Prize; Aliyev, Erdogan, and the Turkic World will secure their transit through Armenia; meanwhile Armenia will outsource its sovereign territory and alienate Iran, its only regional ally.
