“Relieve us of this burden….” Signals Turkiye Could Go All-In With Armenia?
“Relieve us of this burden….” Signals Turkiye Could Go All-In With Armenia?
First Step: Switch SAW To IST For Turkish Airlines And Turkish Cargo Flights To EVN
For the government of Turkiye, the last twelve months are a reinforcement that multi-year cooperation, multi-year engagement, and multi-year patience can be a successful strategy.
Today, engagement opportunities and re-engagement opportunities with Armenia- commercially, economically, financially, politically, and socially continue to arrive at the entrances of the Presidential Complex in the capital city of Ankara, Turkiye.
The second inauguration of Donald Trump, President of the United States (2017-2021 and 2025-2029) fast-tracked
The cultural, military, and religious conflicts between the two neighbors, one with approximately 97% of its population embracing Christianity and the other with approximately 97% of its population embracing Islam, are viewed from afar- meaning primarily outside of the region, as unfortunate and unnecessary. Nevertheless, there is now mental and physical re-building to do.
A primary beneficiary from the Armenia-Azerbaijan re-engagement is Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of the Republic of Turkiye (2014- ), and Turkiye-based companies. Turkiye’s 2024 population approximately 87 million.
President Erdogan’s allegiance and alliance have been with the government of Azerbaijan. Now, for the benefit to the public sector and private sector within Turkiye, the movement of people and products and services from Turkiye into Armenia and from Armenia into Turkiye can be quickly prioritized and promptly implemented.
There remain political issues with Armenia for the government of Turkiye. There were Ottoman Empire era decisions in the early twentieth century that remain painful for citizens of Armenia. Resolving them is challenging; and perhaps they may be unresolvable.
Critical now for political leadership in Armenia and Azerbaijan to set aside, not forget, but set aside concerns, fear, and unresolved issues and focus upon the optics, the performative. Turkiye too.
For both Baku and Yerevan, important to focus upon what in diplomatic parlance are referred to as “confidence builders” such as awarding contracts promptly so the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) can be operational, communication projects fast-tracked for approval and financing, and for travel to be normalized.
The most important involves the movement of people. This means establishing non-stop air services connecting the two capitals, Baku (Azerbaijan Airlines) with Yerevan (Armenian Airlines).
The Trump-Vance Administration (2025-2029) is focused upon commerce, deals, transactions and, most significantly the appearance of engagement.
Sort of like firing a shotgun. Likely result is hitting much even if hitting only a few matters. Efficiently moving from point A to point B is essential for robust commerce. If there are challenges moving between two capitals, two commercial centers, companies will have an excuse to look elsewhere.
Baku already has non-stop connectivity with Turkiye. Yerevan has limited connectivity with Turkiye. That needs to change. There needs to be balance.
For President Erdogan, his global ethos is engage to succeed. Here is another opportunity for him to consider.
Istanbul, Turkiye-based Turkish Airlines is an airborne embassy. Turkish Cargo is an airborne chamber of commerce. Each can, with civilian precision, be deployed quickly and make substantial unilateral, bilateral and multilateral impact. The key component is speed.
The moment has arrived for Turkish Airlines (Türk Hava Yolları Anonim Ortaklığı) to implement two-hour non-stop flights from Istanbul Havalimani (IST) to Zvartnots International Airport (EVN) in Yerevan.
Currently, Pegasus Airlines, a low-cost subsidiary of Turkish Airlines, operates flights from Sabiha Gokcen International Airport (SAW) to EVN. SAW is not IST. SAW is on the Asian side of the Bosphorus. IST is on the European side of the Bosphorus. IST has a global reach. SAW does not.
The schedule from SAW for the two-hour flight to EVN is inefficient for business travelers- and most anyone. Departing SAW at 11:25 pm and arriving to EVN at 2:30 am and departing EVN at 4:15 am or 5:15 am for the return to SAW. Neither Pegasus Airlines nor SAW scream that the government of Turkiye wants to prioritize airborne engagement. Pegasus Airlines is not Turkish Airlines.
When Turkish Airlines commences operations into a country, governments notice. Companies notice. Tourists notice. Other airlines notice. Everyone notices.
When Turkish Airlines returned operations to Damascus International Airport (DAM) in Syria, others followed- importantly, company representatives followed and diplomats followed.
Not challenging to estimate a market potential for the current daily Turkish Airlines non-stop flights from Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) to IST which could then efficiently connect with Turkish Airlines flights from IST to EVN.
The approximately 250,000
For individuals not of Armenian descent, connectively from the fourteen Turkish Airlines gateways in the United States- expanding soon to a reported twenty, will enhance reasons for travelers to select Turkish Airlines. A new route always attracts attention.
Helpful too for the government of Turkiye to soonest authorize all vehicle travel from Turkiye to Armenia. And implement the maximum breadth of electronic commercial documentation and electronic visa travel processes. This will enhance further family connectivity and commercial connectivity, particularly from the United States.
Leadership in the Brussels, Belgium-based European Union (EU) are actively engaging with Armenia- its government, its people, and its private sector. Could Armenia become a member of the EU? Possible.
- EU: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.
But, challenging due to geography- it would be an island rather than an appendage. The EU will expand the totality of its engagement with Armenia- and for commerce, that means the most efficient transit (air, rail, road) is from EU-member countries through Turkiye into Armenia and from Armenia through Turkiye and onward to EU-member countries.
Kaja Kallas, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, a Vice President of the Brussels, Belgium-based European Commission (EC), and Marta Kos, Commissioner for Enlargement of the EC, visited recently Armenia as the government wants pivot from its decades embrace by the government of the Russian Federation; and determining the most beneficial pathway for its engagement with neighbor Azerbaijan and engagement with neighbor Turkiye.
- “We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to support the normalization of relations in the South Caucasus and work toward a much closer partnership with Armenia. We are fully seizing the moment.” Kaja Kallas, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, a Vice President of the EC
Given the continuing engagement by the government of Turkiye with EU leadership and EU member countries, Ankara initiating and implement boldness, absent quid-pro-quo from the government of Armenia, particularly on behalf of ally Azerbaijan, would create optical and performative benefits, deliverables from the Trump-Vance Administration in part due to the political support in the United States for individuals of Armenian descent.
There are always leanings in politics towards extraction and leverage; not giving until receiving; not rewarding unless rewarded; the bank shot- one government does something for another government expecting that government to do something for a third government.
There is certainly perceived political value for restraint by the government of Turkiye toward the government of Armenia until there are changes to the constitution of Armenia, changes which are favored by Azerbaijan and supported by the government of Turkiye.
But, this is a moment for simplicity- by leadership in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkiye. A moment to just do it.
Turkiye is a G20 member (2024 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) approximately US$1.2 trillion). Armenia is a G116 member (2024 GDP approximately US$26 billion). Azerbaijan is a G84 member (2024 GDP approximately US$75 billion). Turkiye is one of thirty-two members of the Brussels, Belgium-based North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)- second largest military among those members. Turkiye has nothing to fear from Armenia. Turkiye has everything to gain from engaging.
For the government of Turkiye, now is the moment to shift from the burden of the absence of a normalized relationship with its neighbor, Armenia, to the opposite- a bilateral relationship measured by ease, luxury, and relief.
President Trump will notice. The United States Congress will notice. The EU will notice. Little risk. Large reward.
