Air University examines lessons from the Nagorno-Karabakh wars
- By Billy Blankenship
- Air Education and Training Command
MAXWELL AIR FORCE BASE, Ala. –Understanding modern warfare requires more than studying battles. It requires examining the political decisions, military investments and alliances that shape conflicts long before combat begins.
That was the focus of a recent Air Force Global College lecture at Air University, where Augustine Meaher IV, associate professor of security studies, examined the three Nagorno-Karabakh wars to illustrate how decades of strategic decisions influenced military operations and reshaped the balance of power in the South Caucasus.
Through historical analysis and discussion, Meaher challenged students to look beyond battlefield outcomes and consider how national policy, diplomacy, force development and technological change influence military success.
“The Soviet Caucasus were strewn with autonomous oblasts and republics, as well as enclaves and exclaves,” Meaher said. “None as contentious or as fought over as Nagorno-Karabakh.”
Beginning with the final years of the Soviet Union, Meaher traced the origins of the conflict through three major wars that culminated in Azerbaijan’s restoration of control over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023. Rather than recounting individual battles, he focused on the strategic decisions that shaped the conflict over more than three decades.
Following the 1994 ceasefire, Armenia and Azerbaijan pursued different approaches to national security. Armenia became increasingly reliant on external security guarantees, while Azerbaijan invested in its armed forces, expanded defense partnerships and modernized its military capabilities.
“The balance of power in the Caucasus gradually shifted,” Meaher said. “Armenia became increasingly reliant on Russian protection while Azerbaijan, growing rich from its oil reserves, learned from the Turks and bought high-quality military equipment from Israel and Turkey.”
When large-scale fighting resumed in 2020, Meaher highlighted how Azerbaijan integrated intelligence, unmanned aircraft, precision fires and maneuver into a coordinated campaign.
“Azerbaijan made heavy use of drones to systematically isolate and destroy enemy positions,” Meaher said.
The discussion emphasized that technology alone does not determine the outcome of a conflict. Meaher described how doctrine, leadership, organization and sustained investment influence the effectiveness of military capabilities once they are employed.
The lecture also examined the role of alliances and security guarantees throughout the conflict, including Armenia’s reliance on Russia and the regional implications of Moscow’s response during the 2020 war.
“Russia’s refusal to intervene in the second Nagorno-Karabakh war indicated that power had dramatically shifted in the Caucasus and beyond,” Meaher said. “Russia’s inability to ensure security to a friendly state was noted throughout its near abroad.”
Meaher concluded by examining how Armenia has continued to adjust its security relationships following Azerbaijan’s restoration of control over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 and the broader regional changes that followed decades of conflict.
The lecture demonstrated how historical case studies can help military professionals understand the relationship between strategy, national policy and military operations. By studying contemporary conflicts, Air University students examine how decisions made before a crisis can influence outcomes once forces enter the battlefield.
As America’s Airpower University, Air University operates as an integrated enterprise that connects education, research and engagement to develop Airmen, Guardians, Department of the Air Force civilians and joint leaders. Through expert faculty, operationally relevant scholarship and professional military education, the university forges expert joint warfighters and contributes to solving operational problems for the Joint Force.
