‘Another attempt is being prepared to deprive Armenia of its independence’

“For the first time in our history, the ‘metropolis’ is not drawing us towards it. Instead, it seems to be saying, ‘We will push you away’,” Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said, commenting on a report on the possibility of suspending Armenia’s participation in the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

Speaking at his weekly briefing, he stressed that the documents governing the EAEU do not give member states the authority to expel another member. The report makes the same point.

However, he drew a parallel with another organisation operating under Russia’s auspices: the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).

“The CSTO allows for such a possibility. Since the EAEU and CSTO have essentially the same member states, the question arises: why don’t they expel Armenia from the CSTO?” Pashinyan asked.

According to the prime minister, the restrictions Russia has imposed on Armenia in recent months have failed to achieve the results that certain circles, both inside and outside the country, had hoped for. The measures include a ban on exporting most Armenian food products and other goods to Russia. Pashinyan said the move had failed to achieve either its economic or political objectives.

The prime minister sees Russia’s economic pressure as an attempt to trigger domestic political instability and deprive Armenia of its independence.

Journalists asked him to clarify whether Russia itself was destabilising Armenia.

“I said very specifically: certain circles in the Russian Federation — yes. Is that news to you?” he replied.

Nevertheless, Pashinyan said he was confident that Armenia was “resilient enough and would overcome this situation too”.

“Time will tell”: on the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council’s report

Armenian journalists asked Pashinyan what he thought about the risk of a catastrophic economic downturn if Armenia left the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), as experts from the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council have forecast.

“Time will tell. Our main priority is Armenia’s continued development and the protection of our independence and sovereignty, as well as diversifying our relations. We will follow this path,” the prime minister replied.

In his view, forces both inside and outside Armenia are trying to exploit the current situation and problems in Armenia-Russia relations. Their aim, he said, is not only to trigger political instability in the country but also to effectively abolish Armenia’s independence.

The prime minister did not specify which forces he meant. However, he noted that several such attempts had taken place over the past three years. First, he recalled the events in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, particularly the exodus of the entire Armenian population from their homeland while Russian peacekeepers were present.

“The aim was to channel the flow of people into Armenia, while calls for a change of political power were coming from well-known quarters,” he said.

Pashinyan considers the situation surrounding the 2026 parliamentary elections to be a second attempt. He appears to be referring to hybrid attacks on Armenia and an alleged attempt to bring Armenians living in Russia to the polls to vote for pro-Russian forces.

“A third attempt is now being prepared. It is part of a certain ‘secret plan’ that is currently the subject of widespread discussion,” he concluded.

Samvel Karapetyan, leader of the pro-Russian opposition party Strong Armenia, has recently spoken openly about a “secret plan” to change the government. He has invoked the plan when asked what steps the opposition intends to take to overthrow the authorities after losing the election.

The prime minister believes the struggle is political rather than economic:

“The aim is to provoke domestic political instability in Armenia. As a consequence, they intend to take control of the Armenian state. In other words, they want to deprive Armenia of its independence — first de facto, and then de jure.”

He added that events over the past several decades had also been directed towards achieving this goal.

“There will be no apocalypse”: on a possible rise in Russian gas prices

Pashinyan stressed that there was no guarantee that gas prices would remain unchanged. He also said that prices had risen at least twice over the past eight years.

“Gas prices have gone up before. You simply didn’t know about it. They rose in 2019 and then — I can’t remember exactly whether it was in 2022 or 2023. The point is that, thanks to citizens who work in Armenia, create added value and pay the taxes required by law, the Armenian government managed to ensure that the public did not notice these increases.”

The prime minister is convinced that even if gas prices rise by 69%, as the EAEU has warned, the Armenian economy will not face an “apocalypse”.

“Those who talk about an apocalypse simply don’t understand economics. I say that quite plainly.”

As the prime minister noted, people also predicted an “apocalypse” in 2018, 2019 and 2020. Yet Armenia’s economy grew throughout those years, Pashinyan said.

“You cannot erase history”: on relations with Russia

Speaking about his communications with Putin and Armenian-Russian relations, Pashinyan stressed that the relationship had always been positive and would remain so. However, he said this did not mean Armenia could simply erase the events of 2020, 2021 and 2023 from its history.

“That does not mean our history will no longer record the weapons we paid for but never received. Nor will it erase September 2022. That month, when Azerbaijani forces invaded Armenia’s sovereign territory, the CSTO failed to fulfil its treaty obligations to Armenia. This had extremely serious consequences.”

The prime minister’s conclusion was clear: dependence on a single country for weapons, gas and even apricots poses a threat to the state.

“We must address this threat. We are increasing Armenia’s level of independence. Are we doing so deliberately? Let’s put it this way — yes. We are consciously, you could even say relentlessly, strengthening the independence and sovereignty of the Republic of Armenia.”

Pashinyan concluded the discussion by saying that “the current situation is much more serious than many people think”. He said Armenia’s independence and statehood were at stake.

“We must learn the lessons of history,” he added.