Armenia: Polling results suggest public wariness over government’s political course

· May 8, 2025

Russia’s gravitational pull remains strong.

(Photo: Dr. Matthias Ripp, CC BY 2.0, n9.cl/33bae)

It is not easy to break old geopolitical habits, the results of a comprehensive public opinion survey in Armenia show.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has spent the last 18 months striving to reorient Armenia

away from Russia towards the West, while trying to normalize relations with long-time archenemy Azerbaijan. The survey findings indicate that public opinion is lagging behind government policy.

At the outset of 2025, Armenia initiated the process of seeking membership in the European Union and signed a strategic partnership agreement with the United States. The poll shows the citizenry is evenly divided on whether the arduous accession process will ever be successful, with 37 percent believing it is definitely or likely possible, and another 37 percent saying it will not happen.

At the same time, public attitudes towards Armenia’s traditional strategic patron, Russia, remain favorable, according to the survey, the results of which were presented at a May 6 news conference in Yerevan.

About 60 percent of respondents were open to Russia remaining involved in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, and 62 percent approved Pashinyan’s decision to travel to Moscow to participate in the Kremlin’s Victory Day celebration on May 9.

Pashinyan’s efforts to get Azerbaijan to sign a peace treaty, the text of which both sides have declared to be settled, have stalled. Baku has set several conditions for signing the pact, including amending the Armenian constitution to unequivocally recognize Azerbaijani sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenians are evidently leery that the treaty is overly advantageous to Azerbaijan, the survey results suggest. Over 86 percent of respondents said Pashinyan’s government should publish the draft treaty’s text before its signing, allowing for public comment.

The poll also indicates that Armenia’s domestic political situation is unpredictable as the country prepares to hold parliamentary elections in 2026. Asked what party they would vote for if the election was held today, respondents gave Pashinyan’s Civil Contract Party a plurality. But its share was only 11.5 percent of the tally.

The poll of 1,110 individuals was conducted in late April-early May by the Gallup International Association–Armenia, a group that has no affiliation to US-based Gallup Inc. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.