Armenia: Pressure increasing on Pashinyan

Domestically, there are signs that citizens are souring on his policies, judging by recent municipal election results. And on the diplomatic front, concerns are rising about the country’s territorial integrity amid a steady, thumping bass rhythm of war-like rhetoric sounded over the past few weeks by Azerbaijan.

Two Armenian municipalities held local council elections March 30, providing the first electoral gauge on Pashinyan’s performance since he unveiled his “Real Armenia” program to remake society, as well as on the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process. The results did not bode well for the prime minister.

In Parakar, a suburb of the capital Yerevan, Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party experienced a drubbing at the hands of an opposition coalition, outvoted by an almost two-to-one margin. In Gyumri, Armenia’s second-largest city, Civil Contract gained 36 percent of the vote, the largest share of any single party on the ballot, but it may be shut out of power, as an array of opposition parties are set to join forces to form a majority in the city council.

The results indicate that Pashinyan has a daunting task in front of him to secure popular approval for the Real Armenia program and an Armenian-Azerbaijani peace treaty.

Pashinyan’s Real Armenia agenda seeks to overhaul Armenia’s economic order by promoting individual initiative and entrepreneurship. It also calls on Armenians to adopt a new geopolitical outlook that draws a line on the past and focuses on the future. The ideals embodied by the program should be enshrined in a new constitution, to be adopted by a nationwide referendum, Pashinyan has stated. He wants to develop a draft before Armenia holds its next parliamentary election in 2026.

Based on the initial ballot-box indicators, Real Armenia seems in real trouble of going down to defeat in a popular plebiscite, and Pashinyan’s reelection chances appear touch-and-go.

Pashinyan also is finding that he has little room to maneuver as he tries to get Azerbaijan to sign a peace pact, the text of which has been finalized. Baku has set several preconditions for signing, including a demand that the Armenian constitution be amended so that Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over the Nagorno Karabakh territory is unequivocally recognized. The recent local election results suggest that an attempt at this time by Pashinyan to push the kind of amendment demanded by Baku would be political seppuku.

Azerbaijan, meanwhile, is acting like there is no peace treaty ready for signing. Instead, Azerbaijani officials seem itching to renew hostilities. For the past two weeks, Baku has leveled near-daily accusations against Yerevan that Armenian forces are initiating armed provocations in border areas. Armenian government officials have vigorously denied all accusations, and even offered visual evidence of what they contend is Azerbaijani firing on Armenian villages near the border.

Top Azerbaijani government officials and state-aligned media outlets are already on the rhetorical offensive. In a March 27 speech made in the village of Agdam, which was occupied for almost three decades by Armenian forces, President Ilham Aliyev repeatedly described Armenia as a “hated enemy,” referring to Armenian forces as “marauders” and “thieves” who engaged in “unprecedented barbarity.”

Perhaps more ominously, the Azerbaijani press is full of hints that Baku does not consider the existing border between the two states to be fixed. Various media commentaries of late have featured the phrase “contingent border” [şərti sərhəd]. The meaning of the phrase suggests that the frontier is not real, even if it is accepted by all sides. The repeated use of the phrase in the press, especially in light of Aliyev’s recent claims that portions of Armenian territory in Syunik Province are historically Azerbaijani lands, raises fears that Azerbaijan may resort to force to take back what Baku portrays as “West Zangezur.”

Regional analysts are growing worried that the window of opportunity for lasting peace in the South Caucasus is closing.

“If those advocating for peace in the South Caucasus want to act, the time is now. The key pieces are in place. If Baku and Yerevan wait too long, they may squander one of the best opportunities for a settlement they have ever had—a misstep that would have grave consequences for the entire region,” wrote Olesya Vartanyan, a Caucasus expert with Brussels-based Crisis Group, in a recent commentary published by Carnegie Politika.