How Turkey-US ties could shift if Trump wins in November
Al-Monitor
Amid President Joe Biden’s poor debate performance in late June and drop in pre-election polls, many Turkish commentators are now entertaining the possibility of a Donald Trump victory in the US elections in November, and they are weighing how Turkey-US ties could evolve under Trump versus under Biden. Yet the general tenor of Turkey-US relations might not change radically, even if Trump wins the election and reenters the White House.
Following the July 13 attempt on Trump’s life, Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, became one of the few world leaders who had a phone conversation with Trump. Praising the former president for his bravery and message of unity following the assassination attempt, Erdogan also congratulated Trump for formally securing the Republican nomination.
While some claim that four more years under Trump might be good for Turkey, experts who spoke to Al-Monitor explain that though Ankara-Washington ties won’t magically mend if Trump wins, there may be slight improvement.
“The sense in the United States is that Erdogan and Trump will have a slightly better chemistry than has been the case between Erdogan and Biden, and presidential chemistry makes a difference,” Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish research program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Al-Monitor.
“We know that Erdogan and Trump in the past got along quite well, so we should anticipate that the two leaders will pick up where they left off, and therefore, the tenor of [Turkish-US relations] will be slightly more positive because of the presidential rapport trickling down.”
“Still,” cautioned Cagaptay, “that does not mean things will not be good if Biden wins. I think there will be a reset [in Turkey-United States relations] if Biden wins.”
In that context, several issues will play a critical role in ties between Ankara and Washington in the event of a new US administration: Turkey’s counterterrorism efforts, Russia’s war in Ukraine and Israel’s war in Gaza.
Turkey’s counterterrorism efforts in Syria and Iraq
Syria and the United States’ support for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) will remain at the top of the agenda between Turkey and the United States, regardless of the winner of the US election. The SDF is the main ally of the US-backed coalition against the Islamic State, but Turkey deems the armed group’s backbone, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), as well as the Syrian Kurdish organization Democratic Unity Party (PYD), as terrorist organizations due to their links to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The PKK has been waging an armed campaign against Turkey for Kurdish self-rule inside Turkey since the 1980s.
Turkey’s efforts to convince Washington to end its alliance with the SDF and withdraw its troops from northern Syria have failed so far. Fatih Ceylan, a retired Turkish diplomat and Turkey’s former ambassador to NATO, recalled that Trump sought to withdraw US forces from Syria in line with the Turkish demand during his presidency. “Previously, Trump wanted to withdraw all US forces from Syria but failed,” he told Al-Monitor. “There is an established relationship there. Whether the United States will suddenly abandon the PYD/YPG, that’s hard to say at this point.”
Cagaptay, meanwhile, believes that if the new US administration decides to withdraw from Syria, Turkey’s cooperation might be useful in limiting Iranian influence in the country. Along with Russia, Iran is the main backer of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
“Anticipating a US withdrawal [from Syria], Turkey’s role will increase because, from the US perspective, Turkey can prevent an Iranian land bridge to Syria through Iraq,” Cagaptay told Al-Monitor.
“That will also mean a reconsideration of the US relationship with the YPG because that is Turkey’s ‘sine qua non’ for a partnership with the United States in Syria and Iraq, the latter where Turkey is working on the Development Road project to undermine Iranian influence,” he added, in reference to an estimated $20 billion transportation link spanning 1,275 kilometers (792 miles) from the oil-rich southern Iraqi province of Basra to Turkey via road and railway.
“I call it money versus guns — Turkey brings money to build influence and Iran brings proxies. That Turkish influence-building in Iraq will be supported by the United States, and I think the same thing will happen in Syria,” Cagaptay said.
Trump and Erdogan: Tough times, tough leaders
Turkish-US relations under Trump had some ups and many downs. While Erdogan and Trump “clicked,” they had their share of awkward moments. In October 2019, Trump first greenlighted, then balked at a Turkish military operation (code-named “Peace Spring”) against the SDF.
The Turkish government considers the SDF, YPG and PYD as “terrorist” offshoots of the PKK. The United States and most European Union countries categorize the PKK as a terrorist organization, but not the SDF or its Syrian Kurdish members. Under pressure from both Republicans and Democrats, Trump told Erdogan to halt “Peace Spring” in a letter dated Oct. 9, 2019, advising the Turkish president “not to be a tough guy” and “a fool.” Still, the two men quickly patched things up during a visit to Washington the following month.
Russia-Ukraine war and NATO
On Turkey’s ties with NATO, Ceylan cautioned against narrowing focus to Turkish-US bilateral ties, underlining the unpredictability that a Trump presidency could introduce.
“Trump’s actions regarding European security, especially in the context of NATO, will affect Turkey,” Ceylan said. “For example, it’s not possible to foresee what will happen in Ukraine or how the US presence in the Middle East will evolve. It is possible that another Trump administration will be more isolationist in some areas, such as the Middle East, and turn its focus toward the Asia-Pacific.”
On multiple occasions, both Trump and his vice-presidential pick, Sen. J.D. Vance, have expressed a general disinterest in Russia’s war on Ukraine and questioned the wisdom of US support for Kyiv, arguing that the Europeans should lead those efforts.
Trump has consistently argued that European allies in NATO have not allocated enough for defense and are “free-riding” on US security guarantees, a problem that the alliance’s European members have begun to address.
Washington may tend toward isolationism under a Trump presidency, but such a prospect could also pave the way for greater cooperation between Ankara and European capitals. “European allies in NATO could take steps to develop their defense industries, and this could create the conditions for them to cooperate with Turkey, where NATO’s European pillar, of which Turkey is a part, will be strengthened. I hope Turkish authorities are assessing these possibilities,” Ceylan said.
Israel-Palestine
While Ankara and Washington seem to have “compartmentalized” Israel’s war on Gaza, Turkish-US ties under Trump could worsen over the Israel-Palestine question.
In the wake of Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza, where more than 38,800 people have been killed following Hamas’ attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, which killed around 1,200 Israeli citizens, Turkey and the United States found themselves at odds. Erdogan has condemned Israel’s actions and backed Hamas, but the Biden administration is still supporting the Jewish state. The Republican Party’s strongly pro-Israel election platform promises to deepen the divide between Turkey and the United States if Trump gets elected.