Modern Iranian-Armenian Relations

By Arsen Nazarian

The Armenian Genocide coincided with the years of World War I and the reign of Ahmad Shah Qajar in Iran. During the reign of this Qajar king, the constitutional government of Iran was at its weakest and the overall situation in Iran was chaotic and messy. Ahmad Shah was unable to defend his citizens against the aggression of foreign armies, let alone pay attention to the genocide that was taking place in the neighbouring country.

In any case, Iran, despite declaring neutrality in the war, was attacked by foreign powers: Russia from the north, Britain from the south and the Ottomans from the northwest. With the entry of Ottoman army into the northwest of the country, the Armenian and Assyrian populations of those areas suffered greatly. Of course, Muslim citizens too were not spared.

Regarding the fact of the Genocide, numerous Iranian witnesses at the time have testified to the occurrence of this crime, just to name a few: Mohammad Ali Jamalzadeh, writer and translator, Reza Ali Divanbeigi, politician, Yahya Dolatabadi, poet and writer of the Constitutional era, Abdolhossein Sheibani, nicknamed Vahid-ol-Molk, writer and legislator, and many others.

It is interesting to note that before the revolution, there was no official talk of the Genocide in Iran. The issue of the Armenian Genocide began to be raised after the revolution of 1979 and has been the subject of attention and investigation by Iranian political society and civil activists, especially in the last two or three decades.

After the revolution, Iranians of Armenian descent were allowed to hold protest marches to the Turkish Embassy in Tehran on the day of April 24 and publicly hold ceremonies in commemoration of the martyrs of the heinous crime.

Numerous calls have been issued by Iranian political organizations and human rights activists, such as the Iranian National Front and the Pan-Iranian Party, for the government of the Islamic Republic to recognize the fact of the Genocide.

Finally, it is worth recalling that in 2002, a bill requesting the recognition of the Genocide in question by the government of the Islamic Republic was submitted to the parliament by two Armenian representatives in the Islamic Consultative Assembly. There is no information about the fate of this bill. However, it is worth noting that several high-ranking Iranian officials including two ministers and the former and current ambassadors of Iran to Armenia, have paid personal tribute to the victims of the Genocide and laid flowers at the Martyrs’ Monument in Yerevan.

Current Situation

The 44-day war, the defeat of Armenia, the continued aggression of the Republic of Azerbaijan against Armenia, its western neighbor, then the ethnic cleansing of the Armenians of Karabakh (Artsakh), the betrayal of Russia, and the refusal of the Baku regime to sign a peace treaty with Armenia are factors showing that Armenia is still in a vulnerable position, as it was one hundred and ten years ago. In fact, Armenia faces a constant existential challenge.

The Turkish government and its ally, the Republic of Azerbaijan, continue to pursue the goal of weakening Armenia to the point of its destruction.

After the start of Putin’s aggression against the independent country of Ukraine, Russia turned from the main ally of Armenia into its enemy. The value and importance of Armenia for Vladimir Putin’s Russia compared to the role that Turkey and Azerbaijan could play for him in the Ukrainian war, has actually reached zero. Putin has shown that in order to gain the support of the two named countries to dodge western sanctions, he is ready to give them any concessions they want to the detriment of Armenia – as was seen in the case of Karabakh (Artsakh). In fact, now the three countries of Russia, Turkey and Azerbaijan, despite having different and sometimes conflicting interests, pursue the common goal of weakening Armenia to the point of making it a dysfunctional state.

The Purposes of Their Policy

The purposes of their policy can be formulated as follows. First, they wish to seize Syunik province of Armenia and take possession of the so-called Zangezur corridor (Meghri Pass) to connect tmainland Azerbaijan with its hinterland of Nakhijevan (and then Turkey). Syunik province is a 30-40 km strip of land that separates Azerbaijan from Nakhijevan and Turkey.

Second, they wish to place the control of the so-called Zangezur corridor, i.e. the “middle energy route” at the disposal of Russia. The current energy routes in the area include the Nabucco route of Azerbaijan-Georgia-Türkiye and the Aras route of Azerbaijan-Iran-Turkey. The middle route of Azerbaijan-Armenia-Turkey, would be the shortest, smoothest and most economical route.

Russia and Turkey pursue the above goals through the Republic of Azerbaijan by encouraging and lending political, diplomatic and sometimes military support to it.

Russia does not have a common border with Armenia, so a direct Russian attack on Armenia is not possible. Regarding Turkey and its policy towards Armenia, two realities should be kept in mind. First, Turkey is facing serious economic problems, partly as a result of the terrible earthquake that occurred in 2023, and thus needs Western help. Second, the possible exit or withdrawal of United States from NATO has caused serious concern in Turkey, so that the country is now trying to gain another reliable shelter and at least gain entry into the European Union. The above factors have caused this country to refrain from the thought of an aggression against Armenia, as it would impose such high costs on it that would outweigh possible benefits. Therefore, the greatest danger that directly threatens the existence of Armenia comes now from the Republic of Azerbaijan.

The fall of Syunik, the southern province of Armenia, would actually be the beginning of the fall of the Armenian state and a disaster equal to the Genocide. In addition, the severance of Iran’s ties with the South Caucasus, the loss of its strategic depth by being encircled by the Turkic-speaking countries, will also be one of the consequences of such an event for Iran. Therefore, after the grave mistakes it made in its policy towards its two northwestern neighbors (Azerbaijan and Armenia) at the beginning of the 44-day war, the Islamic Republic has now turned to another policy for maintaining its weight and status in the South Caucasus. This approach implies the preservation of internationally recognized borders, including those of Armenia. We will return to this issue shortly.

Armenia’s Cards

What deterrents and resources does Armenia have against her existential security risks?

It is an independent state and is a member of the United Nations (at the time of the Genocide, there was no independent Armenian state)

It has a diaspora larger than the country’s population, largely created by the Genocide.

It has a democratic system based on free elections and respect for human rights.

It has close relations with the European Union and the United States (collectively, the “West”).

It has good relations with its historical neighbor Iran.

Iran’s policy towards the So-called Zangezur Corridor Issue

After the 44-day war, during which the Islamic Republic took a position to the detriment of Armenia and in favor of Azerbaijan, Iran’s policy towards its two northwestern neighbors changed. At present, Iran doesn’t want Armenia to be too weak to resist further aggression from Baku. On the other hand, the West also has started to provide assistance and support to Armenia which includes political, diplomatic, military and financial spheres.

Recently, the Armenian and Iranian governments conducted “joint” military exercises on both sides of the border, the clear purpose of which was to send a message to the Baku regime not to undertake new adventures. The combat forces of the two countries simultaneously carried out military maneuvers and movements within their own territory and along their borders. It is said that these exercises were carried out with the knowledge and tacit approval of the European Union.

Recently, President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran visited Baku with a large economic delegation. While meeting Azerbaijani officials including President Ilham Aliyev, he reiterated Iran’s position in support of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and Armenia and on the unacceptability of changes to the internationally recognized borders.

One thing is clearly noticeable: both Iran and the West have a tacit understanding not to leave Armenia alone in face of any possible aggression from Azerbaijan.

Negotiations between Iran and the US

These negotiations, and how they will conclude, will be of vital importance not only for Iran, but especially for Armenia. It would be of importance in fact for the entire region and the world. For Armenia, it will be important in the sense that Azerbaijan will lose its playing card in the event of a possible attack by the US and Israel on Iran. In fact, the fruitfulness of the negotiations will mean a decrease in the likelihood of war in the region and a decrease in the strategic importance of Baku for the West. On the contrary, the failure of the negotiations and an increase in the likelihood of war will disrupt the relative stability of the region and will allow Baku to launch new attacks against Armenia, taking advantage of the preoccupation of Iran and the West with other matters.

From the perspective of the Baku regime, signing a peace treaty with Armenia will give the latter the opportunity to restore its economy and army in a short time and neutralize Baku’s military-economic-political superiority. Therefore, this country is constantly thinking about striking at its western neighbor and further weakening its military-economic strength.

Possible Outcomes of Negotiations

One: The US-Iran talks fail.

The negotiations reach a deadlock, the parties leave the negotiating table, and military action is on the agenda. This is the worst-case scenario that can result from the talks for all parties (and for Armenia as well). In this case, the entire region, and possibly the world, will be plunged into an Armageddon with long-term terrible disasters.