Pitfalls of Armenia’s Unnecessary Negotiations with Turkey

By Harut Sassounian
I will attempt to provide a comprehensive analysis of the upcoming
“Armenia-Turkey normalization talks” on January 14, 2022 in Moscow.
Armenia may be bungling these negotiations once again!
— To begin with, Armenia does not need to negotiate with Turkey to
have the border opened. Such negotiations took place shortly after
Armenia’s independence in 1991, when Armenia and Turkey opened their
mutual border, until Turkey shut down its side of the border in 1993.
Since Turkey is the one that closed its border with Armenia
unilaterally, it can now open it also unilaterally. I fear that
Turkey’s intent to hold such unnecessary negotiations is aimed at
extorting concessions from Armenia.
— After its overwhelming loss during the 2020 war, Armenia’s defeated
leader will be negotiating from a position of weakness. A devastated
leader cannot have the mental and moral fortitude to negotiate
properly with such a problematic and cunning enemy. New leaders must
first come to power in Armenia so they can start the discussions, if
necessary, from a non-defeatist attitude.
— There is a fundamental problem with Armenia normalizing its
relations with Turkey, a nation that committed genocide, killing 1.5
million Armenians in 1915. A century later, Turkey still lies about
its mass crimes and denies their occurrence. An unrepentant
genocidaire cannot be a trusted party with which one can negotiate in
good faith.
— In addition to its past crimes, Turkey outrageously participated in
a new massacre of Armenians, killing and wounding thousands of young
Armenian soldiers in last year’s Artsakh war. To make matters worse,
Turkey recruited Jihadist terrorists from Syria and arranged for their
transportation to Azerbaijan during the war. How can Armenia’s Prime
Minister engage in discussions with an enemy with such recurring
hostility? Just imagine if Germany, a country that committed genocide
against six million Jews, would attack today’s Israel and kill
thousands of Israelis. Do you think Israeli leaders would then sit
down with today’s German leaders and negotiate with them as if nothing
happened? Every Jew in the world would be up in arms over such a
prospect. Armenia’s leaders seem to be oblivious about Turkey’s past
and present crimes. They are more than happy to negotiate with the
criminals in Ankara with a callous attitude. If the Armenian leaders
won’t defend their nation’s rights, how can they expect outsiders to
care about Armenia more than them?
— Prime Minister Pashinyan came to power rejecting the rule of former
President Serzh Sargsyan with the slogan “Merjir Serzhin” (Reject
Serzh). Why is Pashinyan then copying Sargsyan’s flawed policies with
Turkey? Armenians in and out of Armenia were up in arms over the
previous president’s ill-fated 2009 Armenian-Turkish Protocols. It
does not look like Pashinyan has learned anything from that failed
experiment.
— “Negotiations without preconditions” is another mantra repeated by
Armenian’s previous and current leaders. But the fact is that, rather
than Armenia placing preconditions on Turkey, it is Turkey that is
advancing preconditions. During the 2009 Protocols negotiations,
Turkey said it did not have any preconditions, nevertheless, several
Turkish preconditions ended up in the agreement. Pres. Erdogan’s
spokesman, Ibrahim Kalin, confirmed such Armenian concerns when he
said at the end of December while visiting Chicago: “we want the
border to be opened and diplomatic relations to begin. For this,
certain conditions must be met and certain issues must be negotiated.”
— The Protocols failed in 2009 because Azerbaijan objected to Turkey
opening its border with Armenia. That helped save Armenia’s interests
that were supposed to be protected not by Azerbaijan, but by the
President of Armenia! The current negotiations may fail also, unless
Pashinyan is ready to concede whatever Erdogan asks for. Turkey is now
demanding that Armenia accept the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan
by signing a peace treaty, thus giving up Artsakh and Nakhichevan for
good, and allowing the so-called “Zangezur Corridor,” not just a road,
linking Azerbaijan East with Nakhichevan. Finally, if Turkey comes to
the table with preconditions, Armenia should be prepared to walk away
or counter with its own preconditions: Recognition of the Armenian
Genocide, restitution for consequent Armenian losses, and return of
occupied Western Armenia.
— Before signing the 2009 Armenia-Turkey Protocols, Pres. Sargsyan
made a half-hearted attempt to visit several Diaspora communities
ostensibly to hear their views. Pashinyan has made no such attempt. He
has not consulted with anyone from the Diaspora. Pashinyan should
realize that relations with Turkey are a pan-Armenian issue, not
solely a domestic matter of the Republic of Armenia. He should take
into consideration Diaspora’s views, even if he is the one who makes
the final decision. Moreover, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut
Cavusoglu recently stated that “extremist groups” in the Armenian
Diaspora “should not put pressure on Yerevan,” to disrupt the
Armenia-Turkey relations. In addition, Erdogan’s spokesman Kalin said
in Chicago recently: “the current Armenia-Turkey normalization process
will destroy the Armenian community of the United States.” Such a
statement is an unwelcome interference in intra-Armenian affairs.
Turkish officials’ unwarranted statements should galvanize all
Armenians to reject their unacceptable intervention.
— The qualifications of the person conducting the negotiations on
behalf of Armenia are extremely important. Erdogan appointed as
Turkey’s negotiator the seasoned diplomat, former Turkish Ambassador
to the United States, and notorious genocide denialist Serdar Kilic.
Pashinyan, on the other hand, in line with his many other unqualified
appointments, named Ruben Rubinyan, a young neophyte with zero
diplomatic experience. His only claim to fame is that he is a member
of Pashinyan’s political party and Deputy Chairman of the Armenian
Parliament. Amazingly, when questioned about Rubinyan’s
qualifications, Pashinyan and his political colleagues claimed that
Rubinyan’s party affiliation is much more important than his
inexperience, thereby putting their party’s interests ahead of that of
the nation. Thus, the outcome of the upcoming negotiations is crystal
clear since the wolf will be facing the lamb! There must be more
competent and experienced Armenian diplomats who can conduct such
sensitive negotiations.
— Pashinyan keeps repeating proudly that the leaders of Russia, the
United States, and France support his plans to negotiate with Turkey.
Let’s not forget that Azerbaijan and Turkey also support this
initiative. All of these countries are simply advancing their own
interests, not that of Armenia.
— Finally, Pashinyan’s much touted claim of economic benefits to
Armenia as a result of opening the Armenian-Turkish border is a
dubious expectation. Already, without the border being open, Turkish
products have flooded the Armenian market. The opening of the border
would mean that the cheaper Turkish products will destroy Armenia’s
domestic production. A tiny country with a small population cannot
compete with Turkish products which enjoy the advantage of “economies
of scale” (higher volume at lower cost). To make matters worse,
Pashinyan just threw away the only bargaining chip Armenia had by
lifting the temporary ban on the import of Turkish goods, thus
depriving Armenia of its trump card in these negotiations.
Turkey, a destitute country with a failing economy, collapsed Lira, 12
percent unemployment, 36 percent inflation, and raging coronavirus
(7th highest number of infections in the world), is desperate to
ameliorate its domestic dismal conditions and mend its damaged ties
with the United States, Europe, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab
Emirates, and Egypt. An astute Armenian negotiator, realizing the
Turkish eagerness to impress the world, would attempt to extract more
favorable terms for normalizing relations with Turkey.
No one opposes negotiations with Turkey as long as the negotiator
representing Armenia is a competent person who is able to bring
benefits to Armenia’s interests.