Proving it Can Disrupt the Game if not Invited: Unseen power of Turkey

In geopolitics, power is no longer measured solely by having a seat at the table, but by one’s ability to disrupt it if excluded.
Today, Turkey is demonstrating precisely that: an increasingly agile power whose influence cannot be ignored, even when it is not formally included.
Some nations are invited to shape the game. Others find themselves on the menu. But a rare few can change the outcome without ever being asked to join. Turkey has entered that category—disrupting regional balances, vetoing alliances, and dictating terms in theaters from the Eastern Mediterranean to Central Africa.
And it’s doing so not just through official diplomacy, but through a less visible—but no less formidable—force: its revamped National Intelligence Organization (MİT), which now operates as a proactive, multi-domain strategic asset.

The Eastern Mediterranean: A return after exclusion

Few cases exemplify this shift better than those in the Eastern Mediterranean. When the EastMed Gas Forum (EMGF) was formed in 2019, Turkey was notably excluded. Greece, Southern Cyprus, Israel, Egypt, and their European allies sought to carve out a new energy architecture without Ankara.
Initially, this appeared to work. Turkey was isolated diplomatically. But within a few years, cracks emerged:
• Pipeline projects lacked financing without Turkey’s logistical cooperation.
• Regional energy diplomacy failed to evolve into a viable security structure.
• Politicized alliances became inefficient and brittle.
The 2023 Gaza crisis, Ankara’s renewed rapprochement with Cairo, and European anxiety over energy security have now re-centered Turkey in the equation. Backchannel efforts are underway to reintegrate Turkey into a revamped regional framework. I write this from Rabat, where discreet discussions are taking shape—with Turkey not as an outsider, but as a potential process leader.

Turkish moves to disrupt the game

Turkey’s disruptive capacity is not limited to diplomacy. It is tactical, strategic, and deeply rooted in the field:
• Libya: Turkish drones and the Turkish intelligence (MİT) operatives helped turn the tide in favor of the Tripoli government, halting General Haftar’s advance. Ankara now engages with both sides—its presence accepted, even necessary.
• Nagorno-Karabakh: Azerbaijan’s 2020 military success over Armenia was bolstered by Turkish support—not only militarily but also via intelligence and strategic planning. Russian acquiescence was secured; France and the OSCE were left on the sidelines.
• Russia–Ukraine: Turkey has brokered prisoner swaps, safeguarded grain corridors, and hosted backchannel talks in Istanbul between Russian and American intelligence services, positioning itself as an indispensable intermediary.
• Africa: In Somalia, Niger, and Chad, Turkish influence is expanding across defense, humanitarian, and economic domains. MİT and Turkish development agencies are filling vacuums left by former colonial powers, particularly France. Turkish entrepreneurs, meanwhile, are offering a counterweight to China’s dominance.

Disrupting is one thing, building is another

In other regions, too, Ankara has made its presence felt:
• Iraq and Syria: Targeted Turkish strikes have disrupted PKK/YPG operations, complicating U.S.-backed efforts to institutionalize Kurdish control zones. Diplomatic negotiations are underway to stabilize the region, now with Turkish terms on the table.
• Hamas and Gaza: Despite being excluded from formal ceasefire talks, Turkey’s ties to Hamas make it a key behind-the-scenes influencer in any sustainable truce.
• NATO Expansion: Turkey delayed Finland and Sweden’s NATO bids until its security concerns were addressed, showcasing its ability to block consensus within Western institutions—until it got results.

From disruption to design: a critical choice

Turkey’s foreign policy today is no longer defined by alignment but by autonomy. It operates through statecraft, intelligence, commerce, and culture—all woven into a complex, multipolar web.
But this disruptive model faces a sustainability test.
Two paths lie ahead:
1- Remain a tactical spoiler, forcing inclusion by breaking exclusionary systems.
2- Become a strategic designer, using their leverage to build inclusive, functional, and win-win frameworks.
Turkey appears increasingly inclined toward the second option—transitioning from spoiler to shaper. But it must strike a careful balance.
If Ankara overplays its hand, it risks becoming isolated—not because it lacks power, but because others may no longer want to play. To be indispensable, a country must not only be strong but also constructive, predictable, and respected.

Power to break the game and build the table

Turkey has proven it can break into arenas where it has been excluded. But the real measure of leadership is not in toppling others’ tables, but in building one where others want to sit.