What Pashinyan can and cannot do without a supermajority
Civil Contract’s preliminary victory in Sunday’s parliamentary election leaves Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan able to govern alone, but whether his party clears the three-fifths majority mark in the new parliament hinges on the fate of a single rival party still contesting the results.
Preliminary figures show Civil Contract taking 49.8% of the vote, Strong Armenia 23.28%, and the Armenia alliance 9.93%. Prosperous Armenia, led by Gagik Tsarukyan, fell just short of the 4% threshold required for parliamentary entry, receiving 58,368 votes, roughly 50 votes fewer than needed. The party has requested a recount from the Central Election Commission.
If Prosperous Armenia is excluded, its votes will be redistributed among the parties that did clear the threshold, potentially shifting about five seats. Lawyer Arpine Hovhannisyan, applying Electoral Code formulas that account for minority mandates and vote dispersal, calculates the resulting distribution as: Civil Contract 64 seats (up from 61), Strong Armenia 29 (up from 28), and the Armenia alliance 12 (up from 11).
The seat count matters because 63–64 seats would give Civil Contract the three-fifths majority of all parliamentary deputies required under the constitution to pass constitutional laws, including the Electoral Code, the Judicial Code, laws on the Constitutional Court, referendums, political parties, and the Human Rights Defender. Without three-fifths, the ruling party cannot elect or dismiss judges of the Constitutional Court and Court of Cassation, members of the Supreme Judicial Council, the Prosecutor General, the Human Rights Defender, or members of the Central Election Commission, the broadcast regulator, the Audit Chamber, or the Central Bank governor.
Even with three-fifths secured, however, Pashinyan’s party would still fall well short of the two-thirds majority needed to initiate constitutional amendments or put fundamental articles of the constitution to a referendum. Amending the constitution’s preamble, which references the Declaration of Independence and has been a stated priority of the ruling party, would require that higher bar. Removing that reference is a precondition set by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to sign the agreed-upon peace treaty with Armenia.
The final composition of parliament will not be determined until the deadline for recount requests passes and any appeals are resolved.
