What Turkey’s Fighter Choices Indicate About Its Air Force’s Future
Turkish officials have recently made statements that give substantial insight into the future of the country’s sizable fleet of fighter jets, which is undergoing a transitional phase.
The United States approved a $23 billion deal in January for 40 new modernized Block 70 F-16s and 79 modernization kits for Turkey’s current F-16 fleet. Turkey had initially requested the sale in October 2021. Modernized F-16s are vitally important for Turkey. Most of the Turkish Air Force fighter fleet consists of F-16s, Block 30/40/50 models acquired between 1987 and 2012, and Ankara doesn’t expect to field next-generation fighters, in the form of the indigenous TF Kaan fighter it’s presently developing, until the end of this decade at the earliest.
Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler declared his country is happy with the F-16 deal, telling Reuters on Monday that Ankara hopes “the project will be completed without any problems until the last jet is delivered.”
Nevertheless, Bloomberg reported in July that Turkey is seeking an offset agreement to reduce the present $23 billion price tag. It hopes the U.S. will agree to allow Turkey to produce some parts locally.
Such a move is hardly surprising. Since Turkey ordered its first F-16s in 1987, it has manufactured the fighters under license domestically. With the proposed offset agreement, Turkey likely aims to save money and bolster local industries, which are already working on upgrading and expanding the service life of Turkish F-16s.
As part of its Ozgur program, Turkey has already begun upgrading 36 of its older F-16 Block 30s with active electronically scanned array radar.
Ankara’s request for an offset agreement could indicate self-confidence in programs like Ozgur, which could at least keep its Block 30s up-to-date into the early 2030s, when it will receive its new F-16s and expects to introduce the TF Kaan.
Turkey sought the new F-16s after being suspended from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program when it imported Russian S-400 air defense missile systems in 2019. Shortly after initially making the request in 2021, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his desire to get a refund for an estimated $1.4 billion Turkey had paid for F-35s before its suspension or have that amount deducted from the F-16 deal. Ankara had hoped to acquire 100 F-35As for its air force, which is one reason it hadn’t acquired any new F-16s since 2012.
Furthermore, as the State Department press release of the deal notes, “The purchaser typically requests offsets. Any offset agreement will be defined in negotiations between the purchaser and the contractor.”
Turkey is not having much luck with another fighter acquisition deal that it has requested.
Ankara confirmed its interest in acquiring 40 Eurofighter Typhoons in November 2023, before the F-16 deal was finally approved, and had talks with Britain and Spain. However, Germany, a member of the consortium that developed and built the Eurofighter with the power to veto any export of the aircraft, opposes a Turkish sale.
Erdogan urged German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to lift Berlin’s ban in July. Coinciding with Ankara’s bid to revise parts of the F-16 contract, this was another firm indication that Turkey wants both fighters, not just one or the other.
Defense Minister Guler reaffirmed Turkey’s interest in the Eurofighter on Monday and expressed his hope that Germany and its partners would give a positive response on the matter, acknowledging there has been little progress so far.
Two days earlier, Metin Gurak, the Chief of the Turkish General Staff, visited Britain’s Coningsby Air Base in Lincolnshire, where he posed for a photo with a Eurofighter FGR4.
Washington only approved the F-16 deal after Turkey dropped its objections to Sweden’s admission into the NATO alliance. Nevertheless, even after the approval of the F-16 deal, Ankara confirmed it was still interested in a Eurofighter acquisition. Turkish commentators noted that one reason Turkey seeks the fighter is to counter Greece’s advanced French-built Dassault Rafale F3Rs.
A Eurofighter Typhoon multirole fighter flies during the 2024 ILA Berlin Air Show on June 5, 2024 in … [+]
GETTY IMAGES“The Typhoon has the edge over both Gripen and Rafale in terms of Beyond Visual Range (BVR) combat, top speed, acceleration, maneuverability, service ceiling and climb rate,” wrote Justin Bronk, the senior research fellow for airpower and technology in the Military Sciences Team at the Royal United Services Institute, earlier this year.
“It is widely considered to be the most capable air superiority fighter of the three and is also a potent strike aircraft with excellent sensors but slightly reduced ordinance-carrying capacity compared to the Rafale.”
Capabilities like these are undoubtedly among the reasons Turkey seeks Typhoons in addition to the latest Vipers.
Germany had previously blocked Britain from selling Saudi Arabia another batch of Eurofighters for several years but recently lifted that ban after the kingdom intercepted drones and missiles launched by the Houthis in Yemen against Israel. Berlin may not make a similar policy reversal in Turkey’s case anytime soon, especially in light of Erdogan’s hostile comments toward Israel and embrace of Hamas.
Nevertheless, the comments and suggestions made by Turkish officials in recent months make clear Ankara’s vision for its air force in this transitional phase. It seeks two capable, high-end 4.5-generation
