Vance Should Bypass Azerbaijan After Its ‘Kangaroo Court’ Sentencings of Armenians

On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijani dictator Ilham Aliyev ordered his forces to ethnically cleanse the remaining indigenous Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh despite promises just days earlier not to do so. More than 200 Armenians died as Azeri troops drove 120,000 ethnic Armenians off their land, razed graves, and vandalized or destroyed churches and monasteries.

Artsakh was the first of three autonomous entities or unrecognized states—the Kurdish autonomous administration in North and East Syria (“Rojava”) and Somaliland being the other two—characterized by democracy, tolerance, and general fiscal transparency under assault by autocratic, extremist, and corrupt entities that claimed sovereignty over them. For all that European leaders and many in the State Department talk about democracy, the failure of the United States to support Artsakh, Rojava, and Somaliland shows such rhetoric to be empty.

Aliyev’s tenure over Azerbaijan has been an abject failure. While Azerbaijan, on paper, should be almost as wealthy as Gulf oil sheikhdoms, Aliyev’s corruption has left the country impoverished, with a per capita income below hydrocarbon-poor Armenia and Georgia. There is hardly an advocate for Aliyev and Azerbaijan in the think tank or media communities, meanwhile, who does not somehow suckle on the teat of Azerbaijan’s caviar diplomacy, its dog-and-pony show junkets, inflated honoraria, and sidebar commercial dealings.

Azerbaijan is sensitive enough about democracy in Armenia, but to have democracy on territory it calls its own was too great a threat to Aliyev. Hence, after his troops stormed Artsakh, Aliyev arrested its elected leaders on various charges, including crimes against peace and humanity, war crimes, preparation and conduct of an aggressive war, genocide, violations of the laws and customs of war, terrorism, and the violent seizure of power.

Nothing in Azerbaijan happens by chance; nor is the judiciary in any way independent of Aliyev. Therefore, the White House and the broader international community must consider the reasons for the court’s action now.

While President Donald Trump takes pride in an Azerbaijan-Armenia peace process, the dynamics of that process always raised questions about Aliyev’s sincerity. Throughout the negotiations (which began during the Biden administration), Aliyev would make humiliating and extreme demands that appeared designed to force Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to walk away. Pashinyan, however, called his bluff and acquiesced to every demand, frustrating Aliyev, who simply believes that Armenia has no right to exist. By sentencing Artsakh’s Armenian leaders to such lengthy and unjust prison terms, Aliyev is doubling down, signaling he seeks surrender and not peace.

Aliyev also seeks to thumb his nose at the United States. His action comes as Vice President JD Vance prepares to visit both Armenia and Azerbaijan. To now visit Baku, so soon after such a travesty of justice and provocation, would be to imply U.S. endorsement. What is at stake is not only Trump’s desire to cement peace in the South Caucasus, but also a commitment by Trump and Vance to protect Christian communities under siege.

Vance should continue to Yerevan, while his National Security Advisor Andy Baker, whose commitment to Armenian Christians is sincere and predates the Vance vice presidency, makes clear to Aliyev and his inner circle that the only way senior U.S. officials will visit Azerbaijan, now or in the future, is to bring home all the Armenian hostages, up to and including Ruben Vardanyan.

Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he specializes in Middle Eastern countries, particularly Iran and Turkey. His career includes time as a Pentagon official, with field experiences in Iran, Yemen, and Iraq, as well as engagements with the Taliban prior to 9/11. Mr. Rubin has also contributed to military education, teaching U.S. Navy and Marine units about regional conflicts and terrorism. His scholarly work includes several key publications, such as “Dancing with the Devil” and “Eternal Iran.” Rubin earned his Ph.D. and M.A. in history and a B.S. in biology from Yale University.