Israel’s got a new neighbor: Turkey’s taking over Syria

“Just as we entered Karabakh and Libya, we will do the same in Israel.” These were the words of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan just six months ago. With the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime and Turkey’s shared border with Syria, Erdogan’s statement – essentially threatening a ground invasion of Israel – carries troubling implications.

Erdogan referred to Turkey’s involvement in aiding Azerbaijan during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, as well as its 2020 intervention in Libya’s civil war, where Turkish forces backed the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord.

The dramatic collapse of Assad’s regime this week and the victory of Syrian rebels, some of whom are heavily backed and guided by Turkey, should serve as a wake-up call for Israel’s decision-makers.

In his brazenness, Erdogan issued what amounts to a direct threat to Israel, envisioning a Middle East in which Turkey’s influence extends as far as the Sea of Galilee.

Kurdish militias have played a significant role in Syria’s civil war, particularly in northern and eastern regions. Organized under groups such as the People’s Protection Units (YPG) and Women’s Protection Units (YPJ), the Kurds later formed the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in partnership with other ethnic and religious factions. With US support, the SDF managed to liberate vast territories from ISIS, including Raqqa.

However, Turkey views these Kurdish militias as extensions of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Ankara considers a terrorist organization. As a result, Turkey launched military operations in northern Syria to prevent Kurdish territorial consolidation along its borders. This intervention, along with involvement from Russia, Iran, and pro-Iranian militias, has further complicated Syria’s already fractured landscape.

Rebel groups supported by Turkey, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, have launched widespread offensives in northwestern Syria. These attacks, while aimed at Assad’s forces, have also affected Kurdish-held areas.

Amid these battles, Kurdish fighters have been captured, and the Kurds have lost control of key territories. Despite their ambitions for political autonomy, the Kurds face growing military and political pressures from multiple fronts.

The fall of Assad marks a significant turning point in the Middle East, with profound implications for Israel. After 54 years of Assad family rule, the collapse of the Syrian regime creates a new and complex reality. This shift demands careful analysis of the potential impact on Israel, particularly in light of its already strained relationship with Turkey.

The vacuum left by Assad raises concerns about hostile entities, such as pro-Iranian militias and jihadist groups taking root along Israel’s northern border. Pro-Iranian militias that had been stationed in Syria are reportedly moving into Iraq, potentially destabilizing the region further.

Turkey may exploit this power vacuum to expand its influence, given its previous involvement in northern Syria. Tensions between Israel and Turkey, already strained by incidents such as the 2010 Mavi Marmara flotilla raid, could escalate if Ankara decides to take military action in Syria.

Conversely, some argue that the evolving geopolitical landscape could foster closer ties between Israel and Turkey, driven by shared interests in stabilizing the region.

The fall of Assad’s regime delivers a significant blow to the Iran-Hezbollah axis. For years, Syria served as a critical conduit for transferring weapons and supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, there is growing concern that extremist groups could seize chemical weapon stockpiles and use them against Israel. Reports have already surfaced about Israeli strikes targeting Syrian chemical weapons facilities.

Syria’s civil war has transformed the country into a battleground for competing forces. Assad’s regime relied on military, economic, and diplomatic support from Iran and Russia. With Assad gone, the resulting power vacuum could lead to prolonged chaos, with extremist groups or rival factions vying for control.

This instability may enable groups like ISIS or al-Qaeda-affiliated forces to establish a foothold near Israel’s borders, particularly in the Golan Heights.

Amid the shifting dynamics, Syrian Kurdish representatives have reportedly reached out to Israeli officials through various channels, seeking assistance and protection. Israel, which views the Kurdish community as a friendly, pro-Western force, has been working behind the scenes with Western allies to ensure the Kurds’ safety.

In northern Syria, Turkish-backed rebels have continued to exploit the chaos to advance Ankara’s interests. Following the capture of Aleppo, these forces attacked the Kurdish enclave of Tel Rifaat, partially neutralizing the “Kurdish threat” in northern Syria.

The geopolitical changes in Syria come at a time of heightened tensions between Israel and Turkey. The proximity of Turkish-backed forces to Israel’s northern border poses new risks.

To understand the nature of this new regional player, one need only listen to Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the leader of the Syrian rebel forces that overthrew Assad. Julani, who now styles himself as the “leader of a new Syria,” recently stated, “People of Gaza, wait for us – our next target is Jerusalem.”

Julani, whose real name is Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, is a Sunni Islamist and commander of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Formerly affiliated with al-Qaeda, he was arrested by US forces and later released in 2008. Following his release, he joined ISIS under Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s leadership.

With the outbreak of Syria’s civil war in 2011, Julani founded the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra and later rebranded his group as Jabhat Fateh al-Sham. He united various jihadist factions under HTS, where he now serves as military commander.

Designated a “global terrorist” by the United States, a $10 million bounty remains on Julani’s head. How the US will handle a declared terrorist whose ideology openly targets Jerusalem remains to be seen.

Israel, for its part, must prepare for the challenges posed by this shifting landscape.