Six Risk Factors that are Likely To Emerge in Syria in Days Ahead

I write these notes from Doha where I participated in the Doha Forum on Saturday and Sunday. The troika Russian, Iranian and Turkish Ministers of Foreign Affairs met here in Doha on Saturday at the Forum and made important decisions regarding Syria, as well as later meeting with Arab Ministers of Foreign Affairs. MFA Lavrov gave a press conference, but did not say much. Turkish MFA Fidan gave a press conference on Sun and said a lot – obviously, Turkey is in control of developments in Syria, and ominously he issued an ultimatum to Syrian Democratic Forces (Kurds) in North East Syria to get out of the way, adding that he had consulted with the US on the issue.

With the transition underway in Syria, the immense joy on the streets of Syria and among Syrians in exile is obvious. The images of thousands coming out of the notorious prisons in Damascus and Hama are painful to watch. Equally obvious are risk factors that are likely to emerge in the days ahead:

1. Throughout the Syrian civil war, the opposition has been and remains divided. How to prevent infighting among them regarding which group or leader will control the next stage of the transition must be a priority. Already, tensions are surfacing between HTS, the FSA, and the civilian side of the opposition, as well as the PM who has assumed responsibility for the transition on behalf of the outgoing regime.
2. How to prevent Da’esh from reemerging in the desert and heading to population centers like Damascus must be another priority.
3. How to prevent the opposition from taking revenge on regime remnants and their supporters, including its security apparatus, the army, politicians, civil servants, must be a consideration;accountability for crimes committed and a reconciliation process must be considered.
4. How to prevent the opposition, especially the more fundamentalist elements, from taking revenge on minorities, that stood by the regime must be high on the priority list.
5. How to prevent Turkish MFA Fidan’s threat issued on Sunday in Doha against the SDF in NE & E Syria from turning into a bloodbath? In essence, he said that the main component of SDF, the YPG, are foreign, and therefore they have no business in Syria, implying Turkey and its supporters will go after them, possibly with US blessing.
6. ⁠Finally, what to do with US & EU sanctions, especially secondary sanctions which will prevent the assistance needed from materializing – we know that it is easy to impose sanctions, but extremely difficult if not impossible to lift sanctions, especially Congressional sanctions like the Cesar Act.

A failure in any one of the above risk factors is likely to cause the transition to derail. If a combination of these factors are left unaddressed, the risk of Syria plunging in 10 more years of civil war will increase exponentially!