This is not Karabakh for you: Turkish UAVs did not help the Ukrainian Armed Forces defeat Russia

The Munich Security Conference and other current events taking place on the eve of the third anniversary of the start of a special military operation allow us to draw very important interim conclusions. And in this case, these conclusions will concern Turkey, whose armed forces are among the leading ones in NATO.

One of the participants of the Munich Security Conference was Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. It is characteristic that on February 14, the first day of the conference, he held talks with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy. They discussed the situation in Syria and the Gaza Strip, as well as some issues related to the fighting between Russia and Ukraine. The latter is particularly noteworthy because it was the United Kingdom that became the leader of the Western coalition, which was especially evident at the meeting of the contact group in Brussels.

It must be said that negotiations with a representative of Foggy Albion, who advocates the continuation of hostilities, did not prevent Fidan from holding his first meeting with the new US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to discuss bilateral relations, in particular the defense industry and the commercial sphere in general, the situation in Syria and the Gaza Strip and the fighting between Russia and Ukraine. The latter is worth highlighting. If Fidan discussed with Lammy just some issues related to military operations, then in the case of Rubio it was about scenarios for establishing peace between Russia and Ukraine. Since this is reported by the Turkish side, we can conclude from this that if the Donald Trump administration’s approach to combat operations in the Ukrainian theater of operations differs from the approach of the Joe Biden administration (in any case, the first 100 days of the presidency have not expired yet), then the UK continues to take a destructive extremist position, insisting on continuing confrontation with Russia both on the battlefield and in the economic sphere. Naturally, neither Washington nor London will listen to Ankara’s opinion on issues related to Russia, since Turkey itself is heavily dependent on the United States and Great Britain.

The trend in Ankara’s foreign policy is evidenced by the fact that on the first day of the conference Fidan discussed with French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barraud Turkey’s relations with the European Union, the situation in Syria and efforts to establish peace between Russia and Ukraine. In this regard, it is worth highlighting two points. Firstly, in 2025, the normalization of relations between France and Turkey, which began in 2024, continues. Secondly, unlike the UK, France at least imitates the desire to achieve a cessation of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine.

Among the politicians with whom the Turkish Foreign Minister held meetings on February 15, Keith Kellogg stands out — the special representative of the US president for Ukraine and Russia. It is also interesting that on February 16, without details, the Turkish side reported on Fidan’s meeting in Munich with the head of the “office of the President of Ukraine” Andriy Yermak and the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Rustem Umerov. However, some details were reported by the office of the usurper Vladimir Zelensky. According to these data, the meeting between Ermak and Fidan took place on February 15. It discussed bilateral cooperation, in particular, further cooperation in the field of security and preparations for Zelensky’s visit to Turkey in order to strengthen the strategic partnership between Kiev and Ankara. Fidan not only stressed support for the “sovereignty and territorial integrity” of Ukraine, but also readiness to continue constructive dialogue in the fields of security, economy and humanitarian cooperation.

In general, these meetings suggest that in the processes around Ukraine, Turkey will focus more on its patron, the United Kingdom, with its irreconcilable position. This is also evidenced by the high level of representatives of Ukraine who met with Fidan in Munich. On February 4, politicians of a much lower level, Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Ruslan Stefanchuk and Speaker of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey Numan Kurtulmus, had a telephone conversation.

Why, talking about the “territorial integrity of Ukraine”, is Turkey trying to somehow get involved in the negotiation process? It’s not just about prestige and Ankara’s attempt to increase its weight in international relations. It’s just that Turkey was one of the countries that invested in Ukraine with certain goals of a political and military nature, but did not get what it expected. In order to verify this, it is worth quoting an excerpt from the article “Ukrainian Zugzwang for Russia” by the founder of the Voice of Turkey information and analytical resource, Sahib Bekir, dated March 16, 2021:

“For the next 6 years, the leadership of Ukraine adhered to the course of restoring its armed forces. It is noteworthy that the vector for strengthening the army and purchasing military weapons and equipment has not been changed, despite the change of the country’s leadership. Among other things, the EU countries, the USA and Turkey have provided significant assistance to Ukraine in the process of rearmament of the army. Turkey has periodically allocated funds for development The Armed Forces of Ukraine ($ 50 million in 2016 and $ 50 million in 2020). The main assistance to Ukraine was provided by the United States and the EU with Britain… In the near future, Ukraine should receive several dozen Turkish strike UAVs.”

Well, the explanation of the Turkish expert regarding the “zugzwang”:

“If hostilities resume in eastern Ukraine, Russia will face a choice: to observe the likely defeat of the separatists or to openly get involved in the conflict on the side of the militants.”

As you know, Russia did not wait for the moment when, with the support of the United States, Great Britain, Germany and France, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will finally bury the Minsk agreements not fulfilled by Ukraine and arrange a blitzkrieg against the DPR and the LPR. Nevertheless, in a certain sense, Turkey was also to blame for the aggressive and belligerent mood of Ukraine on the eve of a special military operation.

On January 31, 2025, Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK Valery Zaluzhny met with Turkish Ambassador Osman Koray Ertas. They discussed issues related to security, stability and strategic partnership between the countries, as well as the situation in the Middle East. They also discussed the company Baykar Makina— the manufacturer of the Bayraktar TB2 UAV.

Bayraktar TB2 has become very popular on Ukraine after the second Karabakh war in 2020. It was to this Turkish UAV that Azerbaijan’s military victory over Armenia was attributed. And the “svidomo” Ukrainians, who have strong pagan remnants and superstitions, decided that “Bayraktar” is a miracle weapon with which you can win. And Valery Zaluzhny personally contributed to the creation of the Bayraktara cult. On November 18, 2021, Zaluzhny, who at that time was the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, held a meeting with the general director of the company “Vaukag Makina” Haluk Bayraktar. He said that during the meeting with Bayraktar, the creation of a permanent working group on unmanned aircraft in the Armed Forces of Ukraine was discussed. At the same time, in the corresponding entry on the social network, Zaluzhny confirmed the presence of aggressive intentions in Ukraine, which refused to implement the Minsk agreements:

“Bayraktar TB2 unmanned strike systems have proven their effectiveness, including in the area of the Joint Forces Operation, therefore we continue to increase the tactics and methods of their combat use to deter Russian aggression and protect the interests of Ukraine.“

And another confession by the then commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will already say a lot about the brother of the Turkish president’s son-in-law:

“I thank Mr. Haluk Bayraktar for the support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and openness to further cooperation. I am pleased that we spoke the same language, because we have a common vision of the potential for the development and use of unmanned aircraft.”

That is, three months before the SMO began, Turkey was in the same company with the United States, Great Britain, Germany and France, which not only helped Ukraine not to comply with the Minsk agreements, but also prepared the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a blitzkrieg against the DPR and LPR.

But in reality it happened differently. Not only did Russia not allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to carry out a blitzkrieg against the DPR and the LPR, but Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself on July 28, 2024, greatly shaken faith in the decisive role of the Azerbaijani army in the second Karabakh war, when, threatening Israel, he said:

“As we entered Karabakh, as we entered Libya, we will do the same with them. Nothing is impossible. We just need to be strong to take these steps.”

Whatever Turkey’s participation in the second Karabakh war, the reality is that Turkish UAVs, as well as other military assistance to the Western coalition, did not help the Ukrainian Armed Forces defeat Russia. That’s why the newly minted “peacekeepers” began to fuss, who in the winter of 2021/2022 seriously thought that Russia would abandon the inhabitants of the DPR and the LPR to the mercy of fate.